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Монгол Улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлт саарах төлөвтэй байна

Азийн Хөгжлийн банкнаас Монгол Улс, Азийн хөгжлийн төлвийн шинэчилсэн тайланг өнөөдөр танилцууллаа. Манай улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлт 2019, 2020 онд яльгүй саарах ч, тогтвортой хөгжлийг цогцлоосноор эдийн засгийн өсөлт тогтвортой байна гэж таамаглажээ.

Дотоод эрэлт өсөж уул уурхай болон барилгын салбарууд тэлсэн нь 2019 оны эхний хагас жилийн эдийн засгийн өсөлтөд голлон нөлөөлсөн. Харин жилийн сүүлийн хагаст БНХАУ-ын эрэлт саарч, дотоод эрэлт импортын өсөлтийг дэмжсэнээр эдийн засгийн өсөлт удаашрах аж. Ингэснээр 2018 онд 7.2 хувь байсан Монгол Улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлт 2019 онд 6.7 хувь, 2020 онд 6.1 хувь болж буурах төлөвтэй байна.

2019 оны эхний хагас жилийн эдийн засгийн гүйцэтгэл төсөөллөөс давсныг АХБ-ны Монгол дахь Суурин төлөөлөгч Ёланда Фернандез Ломмен онцоллоо.

Тэрбээр “Монгол Улсын эдийн засгийг ялимгүй саарах төлөвтэй байна гэж үзэж байгаа ч энэ нь дэлхийн эдийн засгийн маргаан буюу гадаад хүчин зүйлээс шалтгаалах төлөвтэй байна. Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг тогтвортой өсөх зам руугаа орж, гэнэтийн уналт, сааралт ажиглагдахгүй байна. Бодлого тодорхойлогчид макро эдийн засгийн зөв менежмент хийх, улсын хөрөнгө оруулалтыг оновчтой чиглүүлэх, бизнес, санхүүгийн орчныг эрүүл байлгахад анхаарах хэрэгтэй. 2019, 2020 онд Монгол Улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлт эерэг хандлагатай байх боловч БНХАУ-ын эдийн засгийн удаашрал нь Монгол Улсын экспортын салбарт нөлөөлнө. Хэрэв 2017 оноос хойших макро эдийн засгийн таатай байдлыг засгийн газар ашиглаж чадвал энэ нь хөрөнгө оруулагчдын итгэлийг хадгалж, макро эдийн засгийн тогтвортой байдлыг дэмжинэ. Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг, ялангуяа түүхий эдийн салбар нь гадны сөрөг хүчин зүйлүүдэд мэдрэмтгий хэвээр байна. Иймд бодлогын орон зай, эдийн засгийн нөөцийг бүрдүүлэх боломж олгох үр ашигтай макро эдийн засгийн бодлого баримтлах нь Монгол Улсын эдийн засгийн мөчлөг дагасан савлагаа, эмзэг байдлыг бууруулахад чухал үүрэг гүйцэтгэнэ. Бүтцийн шинэчлэлүүд, ялангуяа банкны салбар дахь бүтцийн шинэчлэлүүд нь чухал хэвээр байх бөгөөд эдийн засгийн өндөр өсөлттэй энэ үед эдгээр асуудлуудыг шийдвэрлэх нь зүйтэй юм” хэмээн тэмдэглэв.




Дотоод эрэлтээс гадна гадаадын шууд хөрөнгө оруулалт эдийн засгийн өсөлтөд чухал нөлөө үзүүлсээр байгаа бөгөөд энэ хандлага цаашид ч үргэлжилсээр байна. Үйлчилгээний салбарын эдийн засгийн өсөлтөд үзүүлэх нөлөө өндөр хэвээр байгаа бөгөөд Хөдөө аж ахуйн салбарын сэргэлт үргэлжлэх төлөвтэй байгаа аж.

Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг түүхий эдийн үнийн савалгаа, БНХАУ-ын эдийн засгийн өсөлтийн удаашрал зэрэг гадны сөрөг хүчин зүйлүүдэд мэдрэмтгий хэвээр байна. Дотоод эдийн засгийн нөхцөл байдлын хувьд, Олон улсын валютын сангийн хөтөлбөрийн хүрээнд хэрэгжүүлж буй банкуудыг дахин хөрөнгөжүүлэх үйл ажиллагаа тасалдах эрсдэлтэй байгааг тайланд онцолжээ.

Инфляци 6 дугаар сарын дунджаар 8.1 хувь байсан бол өсөн нэмэгдэж буй дотоод эрэлт, хүнсний өндөр үнэтэй холбоотойгоор 2019 онд 8.5 хувь байхаар байна. 2020 онд эдгээр хүчин зүйлийн нөлөө харьцангуй бага байх тул инфляци 7.5 хувь болж буурна. 2019 оны эхний хагаст урсгал дансны алдагдал 10.2 хувь болж багассан ба 2020 онд импортын эрэлтээс үүдэлтэйгээр алдагдал нэмэгдэхээр байна. Монгол Улсын нэгдсэн төсөв 2019 оны эхний хагаст дотоодын нийт бүтээгдэхүүний 4.7 хувьтай тэнцэх хэмжээний ашигтай гарсан ба шинээр олгосон зээлийн өсөлт 5.0 хувьтай байснаар нийт зээлийн өсөлт буурсан. Чанаргүй зээлийн хэмжээ нийт зээлийн өрийн үлдэгдлийн 10.6 хувьд хүрч өссөн байна.



АХБ-ны Монгол дахь Дэд суурин төлөөлөгч Деклан Магий, "Монгол Улс Олон Улсын санхүүгийн хориг арга хэмжээ авах байгууллага /ФАТФ/-ын саарал жагсаалтад орох эрсдэл байгаа ч энэ нь гадны хөрөнгө оруулалт орж ирэхгүй гэсэн үг биш гэлээ. Тэрбээр “Монгол Улс саарал жагсаалтад орно гэсэн шийд гараагүй. Үүнийг зөвхөн эрсдэлийн түвшинд авч үзэх хэрэгтэй. Саарал жагсаалтад орсноор, эсвэл тус жагсаалтаас гарснаар бүх зүйл нэг шөнийн дотор өөрчлөгдөхгүй. Дэлхийн хувийн хэвшлийн санхүүгийн байгууллагууд ФАТФ-ын шийдвэрийг харахаас илүүтэй, тухайн улсад хийсэн өөрсдийн мониторинг судалгааг үндэслэн шийдвэр гаргадаг. ФАТФ-аас Монгол Улсад тавьсан үндсэн шаардлагуудыг бодлого тодорхойлогчид тууштай хэрэгжүүлэхээр ажиллаж байна” хэмээв.скачать dle 12.0
48 Сэтгэгдэл

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